A mere 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
